Aspies For Freedom

"The number of people treated for autism at regional centers operated by the state Department of Developmental Services increased 13 percent last year from 2003, according to agency figures."

"Autism now accounts for a little more than half of the new cases handled at the centers,which treat a variety of developmental problems."

This is a very different sort of claim to the claim that the figures from which the graph was derived  represent total numbers for California, and could have all sorts of structural explanations, such as the provision and distribution of social services,  media publicity feedback effects, economically-driven diagnostic creep,  in addition to the inclusion of Asperger's Disorder in DSM-IV in 1994,  creating a growing awareness of it as a handy diagnosis where symptomatology did not seem to  merit a diagnosis of Kanner's autism.

Stella

I've been looking at some research into graphs and statistical data.
The type of curve of the above increases, shown as in the State of California they feel it is in epidemic proportions, would show a "propagated epidemic".

The smooth constant rises would infer that.
A propagated epidemic is found with diseases that are spread not from some common, geographically well defined disease reservoir, but instead by individual-to-individual (e.g., person-to-person) contact.
And certainly not from a common source such as vaccines.

http://www.mansfield.ohio-state.edu/~sab...ol2045.htm

Interpreting an epidemic curve
The first step in interpreting an epidemic curve is to consider its overall shape, which will be determined by the pattern of the epidemic (e.g., whether it has a common source or person-to-person transmission), the period of time over which susceptible people are exposed, and the minimum, average, and maximum incubation periods for the disease.

An epidemic curve with a steep up slope and a gradual down slope, such as the illustration above on the first outbreak of Legionnaires’disease, indicates a single source (or "point source") epidemic in which people are exposed to the same source over a relatively brief period. In fact, any sudden rise in the number of cases suggests sudden exposure to a common source. In a point source epidemic, all the cases occur within one incubation period. If the duration of exposure is prolonged, the epidemic is called a "continuous common source epidemic," and the epidemic curve will have a plateau instead of a peak. Person-to-person spread (a "propagated" epidemic) should have a series of progressively taller peaks one incubation period apart.
http://www.cdc.gov/excite/classroom/outbreak/steps.htm

This is very good information on Epidemiology if anyone is interested.
http://health.jbpub.com/epidemiology/pdf...3_CH01.pdf

It seems that technically the autism increase could be called an epidemic, it does not have to be contagious. It is an increase in an endemic condition, one that is always present in some people in the general population.
But the graph does not show any trigger causations, such as that hinted at with the "folic acid cause" or the "antibiotic cause", the "MMR cause" or "thimerosal cause".
As we know that autism is not transmitted from person to person, propagated epidemic, there is certainly something else to account for the increase.
The Mayo Clinic have stated that increased diagnosis is the significant factor, but maybe that is too ordinary and basic for people to accept.

oh, how interesting Amy! I wish I'd thought of all that! I wonder what Bonnie will make of it all when she thinks about it.

Stella  :roll:

The same kind of smooth, steady but steep graph shape can be seen in the graph of total licit consumption of dexamphetamine in Western Australia from the years 1994 to 2000. Legal dexamphetamine consumption in WA  is a consequence of increased AD/DH diagnosis rates in WA, as dexies are the drug prescribed for AD/HD in WA because it is the cheapest psychostimulant.

The AD/HD diagnosis rate in WA has been a very controversianl issue in WA for many years. WA has a much higher rate than any other Australian state. It is widely believed that it is more of a cultural phenomenon than a biological phenomenon. Anecdotally, WA has an unusually low rate of autism diagnosis.

Link to article cited, graph is on page 17 of report
http://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/web/neww...+-+Reports

I agree with your comments on the lower diagnostic trigger point threshold, Stella.  Until recently, I didn't know anything about autism, and I just assumed that the traits comprising the autistic personality type were within the normal range of human variation.  I certainly didn't see myself or any of my Aspie family members as being in need of medical or psychological treatment.

I believe that we are not seeing an increase in autism, but an increase in intolerance.